王 伟,中山大学岭南学院(广州 510275)
温 韫,中山大学岭南学院(广州 510275)。 作者感谢南开大学范小云教授和王静同学为本文作出的重要贡献以及匿名评审专家和编辑部提出的宝贵意见,文责自负。
纸质出版日期:2024-01-15,
收稿日期:2022-07-18,
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王伟,温韫.“8·11汇改”对中国经常账户差额影响研究 [J].中山大学学报(社会科学版),2024,64(01):194-206.
王伟,温韫.“8·11汇改”对中国经常账户差额影响研究 [J].中山大学学报(社会科学版),2024,64(01):194-206. DOI: 10.13471/j.cnki.jsysusse.2024.01.018.
本文使用回归控制法量化评估“8·11汇改”对中国经常账户差额的影响。研究发现:“8·11汇改”后经常账户差额的反事实值曲线始终高于真实值曲线,且处理效应显著为负,即“8·11汇改”后中国经常账户差额占GDP的比重显著下降,降低幅度可能达到2%以上。上述结论在增加控制组国家数量、在控制组中加入影响经常账户的宏观变量、安慰剂检验、改用合成控制法等一系列稳健性检验中始终保持成立。上述研究结论也为汇率制度选择与经常账户失衡调整之间关系的争论提供了中国的经验证据,即更加浮动的汇率制度确实有利于经常账户的失衡调整。
经常账户浮动汇率制度“8·11汇改”
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